Section: Scientific Foundations
Main research topics

Stochastic modeling: Markov chain, Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes (PDMP), Markov Decision Processes (MDP).
The mathematical representation of complex systems is a preliminary step to our final goal corresponding to the optimization of its performance. For example, in order to optimize the predictive maintenance of a system, it is necessary to choose the adequate model for its representation. The step of modeling is crucial before any estimation or computation of quantities related to its optimization. For this we have to represent all the different states of the system and the behavior of the physical variables under each of these states. Moreover, we must also select the dynamic variables which have a potential effect on the physical variable and the quantities of interest. The team CQFD works on the theory of Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes (PDMP's) and on Markov Decision Processes (MDP's). These two classes of systems form general families of controlled stochastic processes suitable for the modeling of sequential decisionmaking problems in the continuoustime (PDMPs) and discretetime (MDP's) context. They appear in many fields such as engineering, computer science, economics, operations research and constitute powerful class of processes for the modeling of complex system.

Estimation methods: estimation for PDMP; estimation in non and semi parametric regression modeling.
To the best of our knowledge, there does not exist any general theory for the problems of estimating parameters of PDMPs although there already exist a large number of tools for subclasses of PDMPs such as point processes and marked point processes. However, to fill the gap between these specific models and the general class of PDMPs, new theoretical and mathematical developments will be on the agenda of the whole team. In the framework of nonparametric regression or quantile regression, we focus on kernel estimators or kernel local linear estimators for complete data or censored data. New strategies for estimating semiparametric models via recursive estimation procedures have also received an increasing interest recently. The advantage of the recursive estimation approach is to take into account the successive arrivals of the information and to refine, step after step, the implemented estimation algorithms. These recursive methods do require restarting calculation of parameter estimation from scratch when new data are added to the base. The idea is to use only the previous estimations and the new data to refresh the estimation. The gain in time could be very interesting and there are many applications of such approaches.

Dimension reduction: dimensionreduction via SIR and related methods, dimensionreduction via multidimensional and classification methods.
Most of the dimension reduction approaches seek for lower dimensional subspaces minimizing the loss of some statistical information. This can be achieved in modeling framework or in exploratory data analysis context.
In modeling framework we focus our attention on semiparametric models in order to conjugate the advantages of parametric and nonparametric modeling. On the one hand, the parametric part of the model allows a suitable interpretation for the user. On the other hand, the functional part of the model offers a lot of flexibility. In this project, we are especially interested in the semiparametric regression model $Y=f\left({X}^{\text{'}}\theta \right)+\epsilon ,$ the unknown parameter $\theta $ belongs to ${\mathbb{R}}^{p}$ for a single index model, or is such that $\theta =[{\theta}_{1},\cdots ,{\theta}_{d}]$ (where each ${\theta}_{k}$ belongs to ${\mathbb{R}}^{p}$ and $d\le p$ for a multiple indices model), the noise $\epsilon $ is a random error with unknown distribution, and the link function $f$ is an unknown real valued function. Another way to see this model is the following: the variables $X$ and $Y$ are independent given ${X}^{\text{'}}\theta \phantom{\rule{0.166667em}{0ex}}$. In our semiparametric framework, the main objectives are to estimate the parametric part $\theta $ as well as the nonparametric part which can be the link function $f$, the conditional distribution function of $Y$ given $X$ or the conditional quantile ${q}_{\alpha}$. In order to estimate the dimension reduction parameter $\theta $ we focus on the Sliced Inverse Regression (SIR) method which has been introduced by Li [56] and Duan and Li [51]
Methods of dimension reduction are also important tools in the field of data analysis, data mining and machine learning.They provide a way to understand and visualize the structure of complex data sets.Traditional methods among others are principal component analysis for quantitative variables or multiple component analysis for qualitative variables. New techniques have also been proposed to address these challenging tasks involving many irrelevant and redundant variables and often comparably few observation units. In this context, we focus on the problem of synthetic variables construction, whose goals include increasing the predictor performance and building more compact variables subsets. Clustering of variables is used for feature construction. The idea is to replace a group of ”similar” variables by a cluster centroid, which becomes a feature. The most popular algorithms include Kmeans and hierarchical clustering. For a review, see, e.g., the textbook of Duda [52]

Stochastic optimal control: optimal stopping, impulse control, continuous control, linear programming, singular perturbation, martingale problem.
The first objective is to focus on the development of computational methods.

In the continuoustime context, stochastic control theory has from the numerical point of view, been mainly concerned with Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs in short). From the practical and theoretical point of view, the numerical developments for this class of processes are extensive and largely complete. It capitalizes on the connection between SDEs and second order partial differential equations (PDEs in short) and the fact that the properties of the latter equations are very well understood. It is, however, hard to deny that the development of computational methods for the control of PDMPs has received little attention. One of the main reasons is that the role played by the familiar PDEs in the diffusion models is here played by certain systems of integrodifferential equations for which there is not (and cannot be) a unified theory such as for PDEs as emphasized by M.H.A. Davis in his book. To the best knowledge of the team, there is only one attempt to tackle this difficult problem by O.L.V. Costa and M.H.A. Davis. The originality of our project consists in studying this unexplored area. It is very important to stress the fact that these numerical developments will give rise to a lot of theoretical issues such as type of approximations, convergence results, rates of convergence,....

Theory for MDP's has reached a rather high degree of maturity, although the classical tools such as value iteration, policy iteration and linear programming, and their various extensions, are not applicable in practice. We believe that the theoretical progress of MDP's must be in parallel with the corresponding numerical developments. Therefore, solving MDP's numerically is an awkward and important problem both from the theoretical and practical point of view. In order to meet this challenge, the fields of neural networks, neurodynamic programming and approximate dynamic programming became recently an active area of research. Such methods found their roots in heuristic approaches, but theoretical results for convergence results are mainly obtained in the context of finite MDP's. Hence, an ambitious challenge is to investigate such numerical problems but for models with general state and action spaces. Our motivation is to develop theoretically consistent computational approaches for approximating optimal value functions and finding optimal policies.
Analysis of various problems arising in MDPs leads to a large variety of interesting mathematical problems. The second objective of the team is to study some theoretical aspects related to MDPs such as convex analytical methods and singular perturbation.
