Section: New Results

Quantitative analysis of security

Participant : Barbara Kordy.

Graphical models for security is a young but rapidly growing research field. Security models based on graphs combine intuitive, visual representation with rigorous, mathematical foundations. In [30] we address the growing need of performing meaningful probabilistic analysis of security using graphical models. We propose a framework that integrates the modeling technique of attack–defense trees with probabilistic information expressed in terms of Bayesian networks. This allows us to perform probabilistic evaluation of attack–defense scenarios involving dependent actions. To improve the efficiency of our computations, we make use of inference algorithms from Bayesian networks and encoding techniques from constraint reasoning. We discuss the algebraic theory underlying our framework and point out several generalizations which are possible thanks to the use of semiring theory