Section: New Results

Stochastic modelling

Participants: A. Gégout-Petit, S. Mézières, Y. Petot, P. Vallois


In the framework of the esca-illness of vines, we developed different spatial models and spatio-temporal models for different purposes: (1) study the distribution and the dynamics of esca vines in order to tackle the aggregation and the potential spread of the illness (2) propose a spatio-temporal model in order to capture the dynamics of cases and measure the effects of environmental covariates. For purpose (2), we developed an autologistic model (centered in a new way), estimators of the parameters, and showed their good properties, and proposed a way to choose between several neighborhood models. It is the object of preprint [41].

In the framework of chalara of ashand, through a collaboration with INRA researchers, we have proposed a mechanistic model of propagation whose parameters are estimated by bayesian estimation. It is the object of the communication [26].

In a collaboration with physicists from Nancy CHRU, we have worked about the interest to use the whole distribution of telomeres lengths until the mean that is usually used to characterise ageing of a cell. We have shown that the shape of the distribution can be seen as a individuals's signature. It is the object of the accepted paper [10].

We analyse the probabilistic features of the Choquet integral with respect to a capacity over a finite set where the entries are random variables. Despite the amount of studies, the question of uncertainty remains under-considered. Such a question is of first importance in many applications and uses.

In the multifactorial context of modelling for gliomas, we focused our attention on the acquisition of the tumor diameter from clinical-collected data [1]. 3-D reconstruction via an equivalent sphere from multiple contouring of the tumor leads us to characterize its infiltrating phenotype (infiltration rate, direction of infiltration, evolution of morphology over time), current work. Our aim is to incorporate this new factor in the modeling already started (to appear in JBHI, beginning 2019).

A brain cartography obtained by sensorial simulations during awake surgery with the aid of clustering analysis is in revision.