Section: New Results

Analysis of Dengue Fever SIR Model with time-varying parameters

Participants : Stefanella Boatto [Univ Feder Rio de Janeiro] , Catherine Bonnet, Frédéric Mazenc, Le Ha Vy Nguyen.

Migratory fluxes of humains and of insects of various species have favoured the spreading of diseases world-wide. In particular the Ae Aegypti and Ae Albopictus mosquitoes of the Aedes family are vectors able to transmit and spead among humans a variety of diseases: Dengue, Zika, Chikungunya, Yellow fever and the newly discovered Mayaro.

We have continued to analyze SIR models with time-varying parameters to predict dengue epidemics and compared numerical simulations with real data from Dengue epidemics in Rio de Janeiro in order to estimate the infectivity rate and predict what are the periods more at risk of infection [63], [41].