Section: New Results

Mechanistic learning

Ebola models

New models have been developed for the response to the Ebola vaccine. The first one has been fitted to Phase 1 trials and has given interesting predictions of the long term duration of the response that are confirmed with the new data coming from phase 2 trials. These results have been published in Journal of Virology. Then, a new model including the B cell memory response has been defined and its mathematical proprieties have been studied. A manuscript has been submitted to Journal of Theoretical Biology. The next step is to estimate model parameters using EBL2001 clinical trial data.

New publication: Pasin C et al. Dynamics of the Humoral Immune Response to a Prime-Boost Ebola Vaccine: Quantification and Sources of Variation. J Virol. 2019 Aug 28;93(18). pii: e00579-19. doi: 10.1128/JVI.00579-19. Print 2019 Sep 15.

Estimation method

A new approach is currently under development by Quentin Clairon to estimate model parameters using a regularization method based on the control theory. The estimation method used an approximation of the original ODE solution for each subject. The expected advantages of this approach are i) to mitigate the effect of model misspecification on estimation accuracy ii) to regularize the estimation problem in presence of poorly identifiable parameters, iii) to avoid estimation of initial conditions. The method is still under development but preliminary results have been presented at the Viral dynamics conference in October 2019.